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Wizards vs Raptors prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 30

Wed, Dec 30 · 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · NBA TV

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

106-122

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

10% win WSHwin TOR 90%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin16.3

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Wednesday, December 30 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 90% chance to win and projects a 106-122 score (Wizards – Raptors), about 228 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Raptors W1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 14% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Raptors 122 – 106 Wizards, a margin of about 16.3 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / WSH -7.7 per game

+12.7

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Raptors

+16.3

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

69%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

14%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHTOR

113.1

Points scored / game

115.4

122.2

Points allowed / game

109.5

48.0 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

28.5 %

3-point %

30.4 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

83.1 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

45.8

25.8

Assists / game

27.3

7.4

Steals / game

14.3

5.6

Blocks / game

5.5

13.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

TOR lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 10% · TOR 90%

ESPN BPI

WSH 22% · TOR 78%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		TOR
2-3	Record	3-1
113.1	Points scored / game	115.4
122.2	Points allowed / game	109.5
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
L2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	3-1
1-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.