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Knicks vs Bucks prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 2

Wed, Dec 2 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · away
Projected score
116-110
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 · home
67% win NYwin MIL 33%
FavoriteNY
Projected margin5.5
Projected total226
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Wednesday, December 2 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 67% chance to win and projects a 116-110 score (Knicks – Bucks), about 226 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Bucks L1, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Knicks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Knicks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bucks 110 – 116 Knicks, a margin of about 5.5 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

  • The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +3.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Knicks' offense (114.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / NY +3.8 per game
-10.3
Home-court advantageBucks at home
+2.3
Back-to-backKnicks played yesterday
+1.6
InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable
+0.9
Expected marginfor Bucks
-5.5

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+
11%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Knicks win by 10+
36%

Stat comparison Current season

NYMIL
114.5
Points scored / game
111.4
110.0
Points allowed / game
119.0
42.2 %
Field goal %
44.9 %
35.9 %
3-point %
34.0 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
41.2
75.8 %
Free throw %
71.6 %
48.2
Rebounds / game
49.8
26.8
Assists / game
24.6
7.2
Steals / game
5.8
4.4
Blocks / game
4.0
14.8
Turnovers / game
16.8

Players to watch

Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds
Bucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game
Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127
MIL
LWSH128-116LCHI132-125LPHI127-116WIND110-102LHOU132-100

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 10MILupcomingNYDec 2NYthis gameMILFeb 28MILupcomingNYApr 8NYupcomingMIL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
NY 67% · MIL 33%
ESPN BPI
NY 77% · MIL 23%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NYMIL
2-3Record1-4
114.5Points scored / game111.4
110.0Points allowed / game119.0
+3.8Adjusted margin / game-6.4
W2Current streakL1
2-3Last 10 games1-4
1-1 roadHome / road record1-2 home
53-29 (+6.3)Last season32-50 (-6.2)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.