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Bucks vs Knicks prediction NBA · Sunday, February 28

Sun, Feb 28 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · MyMi, Bucks App
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 · away
Projected score
108-118
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · home
21% win MILwin NY 79%
FavoriteNY
Projected margin10.1
Projected total226
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Sunday, February 28 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 79% chance to win and projects a 108-118 score (Bucks – Knicks), about 226 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Knicks W2, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Knicks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Knicks dominate this matchup. The model projects Knicks 118 – 108 Bucks, a margin of about 10.1 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

  • The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Knicks' offense (114.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / MIL -6.4 per game
+10.3
Home-court advantageKnicks at home
+2.3
Back-to-backKnicks played yesterday
-1.6
InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable
-0.9
Expected marginfor Knicks
+10.1

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+
50%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
23%
Bucks win by 10+
5%

Stat comparison Current season

MILNY
111.4
Points scored / game
114.5
119.0
Points allowed / game
110.0
44.9 %
Field goal %
42.2 %
34.0 %
3-point %
35.9 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
39.0
71.6 %
Free throw %
75.8 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
48.2
24.6
Assists / game
26.8
5.8
Steals / game
7.2
4.0
Blocks / game
4.4
16.8
Turnovers / game
14.8

Players to watch

Bucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game
Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds
Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
LWSH128-116LCHI132-125LPHI127-116WIND110-102LHOU132-100
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 10MILupcomingNYDec 2NYupcomingMILFeb 28MILthis gameNYApr 8NYupcomingMIL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIL 21% · NY 79%
ESPN BPI
MIL 18% · NY 82%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MILNY
1-4Record2-3
111.4Points scored / game114.5
119.0Points allowed / game110.0
-6.4Adjusted margin / game+3.8
L1Current streakW2
1-4Last 10 games2-3
0-2 roadHome / road record1-2 home
32-50 (-6.2)Last season53-29 (+6.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.