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Wizards vs Hornets prediction NBA · Monday, November 30

Mon, Nov 30 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · MNMT
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
2-3 · away
Projected score
108-118
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 · home
21% win WSHwin CHA 79%
FavoriteCHA
Projected margin10.2
Projected total226
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Monday, November 30 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 79% chance to win and projects a 108-118 score (Wizards – Hornets), about 226 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Hornets L1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets) and Grant Williams (Hornets)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hornets dominate this matchup. The model projects Hornets 118 – 108 Wizards, a margin of about 10.2 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / WSH -7.7 per game
+8.8
Home-court advantageHornets at home
+2.3
InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable
-0.9
Expected marginfor Hornets
+10.2

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+
51%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
23%
Wizards win by 10+
5%

Stat comparison Current season

WSHCHA
113.1
Points scored / game
111.6
122.2
Points allowed / game
110.3
48.0 %
Field goal %
41.7 %
28.5 %
3-point %
30.6 %
31.6
3-pointers attempted / game
43.2
83.1 %
Free throw %
85.2 %
40.0
Rebounds / game
47.4
25.8
Assists / game
20.6
7.4
Steals / game
6.8
5.6
Blocks / game
5.2
13.6
Turnovers / game
19.0

Players to watch

Wizards
Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game
Trae YoungG · #310.4assists
Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds
Hornets
Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game
Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists
Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
WSH
WMIL128-116LTOR112-102WCHI124-120LCHA110-103LCLE121-111
CHA
WBKN110-103LATL128-81WMIA115-110WWSH110-103LDET97-89

Head-to-head

CHA lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 26WSH103 - 110CHAOct 30CHAupcomingWSHNov 30WSHthis gameCHADec 12CHAupcomingWSH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
WSH 21% · CHA 79%
ESPN BPI
WSH 38% · CHA 62%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSHCHA
2-3Record3-2
113.1Points scored / game111.6
122.2Points allowed / game110.3
-7.7Adjusted margin / game+1.1
L2Current streakL1
2-3Last 10 games3-2
1-2 roadHome / road record2-1 home
17-65 (-12.0)Last season44-38 (+4.8)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Washington Wizards Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut
Tristan Vukcevic FOut
Jamir Watkins GOut
Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Charlotte Hornets Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut
Coby White GOut
Grant Williams FOut
Kylan Boswell GOut
Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.