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Hornets vs Wizards prediction NBA · Friday, October 30

Fri, Oct 30 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MNMT, NBA League Pass

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

116-110

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

68% win CHAwin WSH 32%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin6.0

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Friday, October 30 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 68% chance to win and projects a 116-110 score (Hornets – Wizards), about 226 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Wizards L2, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Justin Champagnie (Wizards) and Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hornets, but the Wizards have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Wizards 110 – 116 Hornets, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / CHA +1.1 per game

-8.8

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Wizards

-6.0

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Hornets win by 10+

37%

Stat comparison Current season

CHAWSH

111.6

Points scored / game

113.1

110.3

Points allowed / game

122.2

41.7 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

30.6 %

3-point %

28.5 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

85.2 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

40.0

20.6

Assists / game

25.8

6.8

Steals / game

7.4

5.2

Blocks / game

5.6

19.0

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

CHA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 68% · WSH 32%

ESPN BPI

CHA 47% · WSH 53%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

CHA		WSH
3-2	Record	2-3
111.6	Points scored / game	113.1
110.3	Points allowed / game	122.2
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L1	Current streak	L2
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.