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Mavericks vs Jazz prediction NBA · Sunday, November 22

Sun, Nov 22 · 7:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

116-117

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

48% win DALwin UTAH 52%

FavoriteUTAH

Projected margin0.6

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Sunday, November 22 at 7:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Jazz a 52% chance to win and projects a 116-117 score (Mavericks – Jazz), about 232 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Jazz L3, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz) and Trey Alexander (Jazz)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Jazz 117 – 116 Mavericks, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Jazz and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / DAL -2.8 per game

-4.2

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

Back-to-backMavericks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Jazz

+0.6

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

23%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Mavericks win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

DALUTAH

114.1

Points scored / game

116.1

117.4

Points allowed / game

124.3

49.0 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

34.6 %

3-point %

33.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

76.7 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

46.8

27.6

Assists / game

26.8

9.0

Steals / game

5.0

7.4

Blocks / game

6.4

15.6

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 48% · UTAH 52%

ESPN BPI

DAL 51% · UTAH 49%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DAL		UTAH
3-2	Record	1-4
114.1	Points scored / game	116.1
117.4	Points allowed / game	124.3
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
W2	Current streak	L3
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.