Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Jazz vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Friday, November 6

Fri, Nov 6 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

114-120

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

31% win UTAHwin DAL 69%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin6.2

Projected total233

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Friday, November 6 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 69% chance to win and projects a 114-120 score (Jazz – Mavericks), about 233 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Mavericks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 120 – 114 Jazz, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other). The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+4.2

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 3 out, 2 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.4

Expected marginfor Mavericks

+6.2

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Jazz win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHDAL

116.1

Points scored / game

114.1

124.3

Points allowed / game

117.4

45.4 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

33.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

76.6 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

44.2

26.8

Assists / game

27.6

5.0

Steals / game

9.0

6.4

Blocks / game

7.4

17.0

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 31% · DAL 69%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 37% · DAL 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		DAL
1-4	Record	3-2
116.1	Points scored / game	114.1
124.3	Points allowed / game	117.4
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L3	Current streak	W2
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Sergio de Larrea FDay-To-Day

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.