Pelicans vs Spurs prediction NBA · Saturday, November 21
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Saturday, November 21 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 89% chance to win and projects a 107-123 score (Pelicans – Spurs), about 230 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Spurs W3, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Spurs 123 – 107 Pelicans, a margin of about 15.5 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NOSA
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsSpurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #111.4reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91SA
116-104L
114-110W
122-106W
130-103W117-111 OTHead-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 118.9 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 111.1 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.6 |
| L4 | Current streak | W3 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 62-20 (+8.3) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Spurs
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.