Spurs vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Sunday, December 20
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Sunday, December 20 at 7:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 77% chance to win and projects a 120-111 score (Spurs – Pelicans), about 231 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Pelicans 111 – 120 Spurs, a margin of about 9.3 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SANO
Players to watch
Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #111.4reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
SA
116-104L
114-110W
122-106W
130-103W
117-111 OTNO
107-106L
123-120L120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| SA | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| 118.9 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 111.1 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +6.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W3 | Current streak | L4 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 62-20 (+8.3) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Spurs
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.