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Lakers vs Bucks prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 11

Wed, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, MyMi, Bucks App
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
118-111
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 · home
70% win LALwin MIL 30%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin6.7
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Wednesday, November 11 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 70% chance to win and projects a 118-111 score (Lakers – Bucks), about 229 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Bucks L1, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bucks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Lakers, but the Bucks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Bucks 111 – 118 Lakers, a margin of about 6.7 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bucks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

  • The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / LAL +3.5 per game
-9.9
Home-court advantageBucks at home
+2.3
Back-to-backBucks played yesterday
-1.6
InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable
+2.5
Expected marginfor Bucks
-6.7

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+
9%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Lakers win by 10+
40%

Stat comparison Current season

LALMIL
118.4
Points scored / game
111.4
114.3
Points allowed / game
119.0
52.9 %
Field goal %
44.9 %
39.2 %
3-point %
34.0 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
41.2
79.1 %
Free throw %
71.6 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
49.8
24.0
Assists / game
24.6
10.8
Steals / game
5.8
5.8
Blocks / game
4.0
16.6
Turnovers / game
16.8

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Bucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game
Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
MIL
LWSH128-116LCHI132-125LPHI127-116WIND110-102LHOU132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 11LALthis gameMILJan 17MILupcomingLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 70% · MIL 30%
ESPN BPI
LAL 76% · MIL 24%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LALMIL
4-1Record1-4
118.4Points scored / game111.4
114.3Points allowed / game119.0
+3.5Adjusted margin / game-6.4
W1Current streakL1
4-1Last 10 games1-4
2-0 roadHome / road record1-2 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season32-50 (-6.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day
Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.