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Bucks vs Lakers prediction NBA · Sunday, January 17

Sun, Jan 17 · 9:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, MyMi, Bucks App
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 · away
Projected score
110-120
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · home
22% win MILwin LAL 78%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin9.7
Projected total231
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Sunday, January 17 at 9:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 78% chance to win and projects a 110-120 score (Bucks – Lakers), about 231 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Lakers W1, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Lakers start with a clear edge. The model projects Lakers 120 – 110 Bucks, a margin of about 9.7 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

  • The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / MIL -6.4 per game
+9.9
Home-court advantageLakers at home
+2.3
InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 2 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable
-2.5
Expected marginfor Lakers
+9.7

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+
49%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
23%
Bucks win by 10+
6%

Stat comparison Current season

MILLAL
111.4
Points scored / game
118.4
119.0
Points allowed / game
114.3
44.9 %
Field goal %
52.9 %
34.0 %
3-point %
39.2 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
36.2
71.6 %
Free throw %
79.1 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
38.0
24.6
Assists / game
24.0
5.8
Steals / game
10.8
4.0
Blocks / game
5.8
16.8
Turnovers / game
16.6

Players to watch

Bucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game
Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds
Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
LWSH128-116LCHI132-125LPHI127-116WIND110-102LHOU132-100
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 11LALupcomingMILJan 17MILthis gameLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIL 22% · LAL 78%
ESPN BPI
MIL 17% · LAL 83%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MILLAL
1-4Record4-1
111.4Points scored / game118.4
119.0Points allowed / game114.3
-6.4Adjusted margin / game+3.5
L1Current streakW1
1-4Last 10 games4-1
0-2 roadHome / road record2-1 home
32-50 (-6.2)Last season53-29 (+1.8)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day
Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.