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Bulls vs Knicks prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 4

Wed, Nov 4 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
1-4 · away
Projected score
108-123
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · home
12% win CHIwin NY 88%
FavoriteNY
Projected margin14.9
Projected total231
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Wednesday, November 4 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 88% chance to win and projects a 108-123 score (Bulls – Knicks), about 231 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Knicks W2, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Knicks start with a clear edge. The model projects Knicks 123 – 108 Bulls, a margin of about 14.9 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

  • The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / CHI -7.2 per game
+11.0
Home-court advantageKnicks at home
+2.3
InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable
+1.6
Expected marginfor Knicks
+14.9

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+
65%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
16%
Bulls win by 10+
2%

Stat comparison Current season

CHINY
115.6
Points scored / game
114.5
124.1
Points allowed / game
110.0
42.1 %
Field goal %
42.2 %
27.6 %
3-point %
35.9 %
42.0
3-pointers attempted / game
39.0
78.6 %
Free throw %
75.8 %
44.8
Rebounds / game
48.2
24.4
Assists / game
26.8
9.0
Steals / game
7.2
4.8
Blocks / game
4.4
17.8
Turnovers / game
14.8

Players to watch

Bulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds
Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
CHI
LTOR135-92WMIL132-125LWSH124-120LBOS134-99LNY133-127
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127

Head-to-head

NY lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 28NY133 - 127CHINov 4CHIthis gameNYDec 1NYupcomingCHI

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
CHI 12% · NY 88%
ESPN BPI
CHI 16% · NY 84%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHINY
1-4Record2-3
115.6Points scored / game114.5
124.1Points allowed / game110.0
-7.2Adjusted margin / game+3.8
L3Current streakW2
1-4Last 10 games2-3
1-2 roadHome / road record1-2 home
31-51 (-5.2)Last season53-29 (+6.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Chicago Bulls Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut
Nic Claxton COut
Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day
Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.