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Hornets vs Nets prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 4

Wed, Nov 4 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES)

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

114-108

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

67% win CHAwin BKN 33%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin5.4

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Wednesday, November 4 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 67% chance to win and projects a 114-108 score (Hornets – Nets), about 222 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Nets L4, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hornets, but the Nets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nets 108 – 114 Hornets, a margin of about 5.4 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' offense (111.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / CHA +1.1 per game

-9.5

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Nets

-5.4

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Hornets win by 10+

36%

Stat comparison Current season

CHABKN

111.6

Points scored / game

108.0

110.3

Points allowed / game

117.9

41.7 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

30.6 %

3-point %

36.7 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

85.2 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

43.5

20.6

Assists / game

24.0

6.8

Steals / game

10.0

5.2

Blocks / game

4.0

19.0

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

CHA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 67% · BKN 33%

ESPN BPI

CHA 59% · BKN 41%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHA		BKN
3-2	Record	0-4
111.6	Points scored / game	108.0
110.3	Points allowed / game	117.9
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
L1	Current streak	L4
3-2	Last 10 games	0-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.