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Pacers vs Warriors prediction NBA · Monday, February 15

Mon, Feb 15 · 7:30 PM ETChase Center · NBCSN

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

111-118

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

27% win INDwin GS 73%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin7.7

Projected total229

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Monday, February 15 at 7:30 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 73% chance to win and projects a 111-118 score (Pacers – Warriors), about 229 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Warriors W2, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Warriors start with a clear edge. The model projects Warriors 118 – 111 Pacers, a margin of about 7.7 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / IND -4.7 per game

+4.0

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+1.4

Expected marginfor Warriors

+7.7

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

43%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Pacers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

INDGS

113.2

Points scored / game

115.5

118.8

Points allowed / game

116.4

47.1 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

31.2 %

3-point %

36.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

72.7 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

43.8

29.4

Assists / game

25.6

6.4

Steals / game

9.6

4.8

Blocks / game

3.8

14.8

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 27% · GS 73%

ESPN BPI

IND 38% · GS 62%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

IND		GS
2-3	Record	2-3
113.2	Points scored / game	115.5
118.8	Points allowed / game	116.4
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
L2	Current streak	W2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.