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Warriors vs Pacers prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 16

Wed, Dec 16 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

116-113

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

60% win GSwin IND 40%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin3.1

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Wednesday, December 16 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 60% chance to win and projects a 116-113 score (Warriors – Pacers), about 229 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Pacers L2, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers) and Ben Sheppard (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Warriors are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pacers 113 – 116 Warriors, a margin of about 3.1 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / GS -0.8 per game

-4.0

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

-1.4

Expected marginfor Pacers

-3.1

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

15%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Warriors win by 10+

29%

Stat comparison Current season

GSIND

115.5

Points scored / game

113.2

116.4

Points allowed / game

118.8

45.0 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

36.9 %

3-point %

31.2 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

82.2 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

44.0

25.6

Assists / game

29.4

9.6

Steals / game

6.4

3.8

Blocks / game

4.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 60% · IND 40%

ESPN BPI

GS 40% · IND 60%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

GS		IND
2-3	Record	2-3
115.5	Points scored / game	113.2
116.4	Points allowed / game	118.8
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
W2	Current streak	L2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.