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Clippers vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 25

Wed, Nov 25 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · ClipperVision

LA Clippers

1-3 · away

Projected score

111-115

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

36% win LACwin MEM 64%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin4.6

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Wednesday, November 25 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 64% chance to win and projects a 111-115 score (Clippers – Grizzlies), about 226 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers) and Jordan Miller (Clippers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Grizzlies, but the Clippers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Grizzlies 115 – 111 Clippers, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / LAC +0.4 per game

-2.2

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · LAC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+4.5

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+4.6

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Clippers win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

LACMEM

112.0

Points scored / game

115.2

111.5

Points allowed / game

117.3

45.9 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

39.0 %

3-point %

39.1 %

35.3

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

78.6 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

40.8

Rebounds / game

50.0

25.0

Assists / game

25.0

12.5

Steals / game

6.3

4.5

Blocks / game

6.3

23.0

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAC 36% · MEM 64%

ESPN BPI

LAC 41% · MEM 59%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAC		MEM
1-3	Record	4-0
112.0	Points scored / game	115.2
111.5	Points allowed / game	117.3
+0.4	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L3	Current streak	W4
1-3	Last 10 games	4-0
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
42-40 (+1.1)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.