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Grizzlies vs Clippers prediction NBA · Thursday, March 18

Thu, Mar 18 · 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · ClipperVision, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

112-113

LA Clippers

1-3 · home

45% win MEMwin LAC 55%

FavoriteLAC

Projected margin1.6

Projected total225

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The LA Clippers (1-3) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Thursday, March 18 at 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Clippers a 55% chance to win and projects a 112-113 score (Grizzlies – Clippers), about 225 total points. This season, the Clippers are 1-1 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Clippers and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Clippers L3, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Grizzlies played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers) and Jordan Miller (Clippers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Clippers 113 – 112 Grizzlies, a margin of about 1.6 points in favor of the Clippers and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Grizzlies played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Clippers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAC +0.4 / MEM -1.8 per game

+2.2

Home-court advantageClippers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backGrizzlies played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesLAC: 5 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.5

Expected marginfor Clippers

+1.6

Scenarios

Clippers win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Grizzlies win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMLAC

115.2

Points scored / game

112.0

117.3

Points allowed / game

111.5

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

39.1 %

3-point %

39.0 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

35.3

82.8 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

40.8

25.0

Assists / game

25.0

6.3

Steals / game

12.5

6.3

Blocks / game

4.5

15.5

Turnovers / game

23.0

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 45% · LAC 55%

ESPN BPI

MEM 47% · LAC 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		LAC
4-0	Record	1-3
115.2	Points scored / game	112.0
117.3	Points allowed / game	111.5
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+0.4
W4	Current streak	L3
4-0	Last 10 games	1-3
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	42-40 (+1.1)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.