Wizards vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Friday, October 16
FinalSmoothie King Center · MNMT, GCSEN, Pelicans.com
24% win WSHwin NO 76%
FavoriteNO
Projected margin8.7
Projected total237
ConfidenceMedium
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans host the Washington Wizards on Friday, October 16 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. Final score: Wizards 106 – Pelicans 107. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Pelicans a 76% chance to win: prediction correct.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Pelicans dominate this matchup. The model projects Pelicans 123 – 114 Wizards, a margin of about 8.7 points in favor of the Pelicans and a total around 237 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-3.8 vs -10.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pelicans' defense allows clearly fewer points (120.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -3.8 / WSH -10.2 per game
+6.4
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Pelicans
+8.7
Scenarios
Pelicans win by 10+
46%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
25%
Wizards win by 10+
7%
Stat comparison Current season
WSHNO
112.9115.5
124.9120.0
48.0 %46.5 %
28.5 %29.0 %
31.631.0
83.1 %83.6 %
40.044.3
25.823.5
7.412.3
5.64.8
13.616.5
Top performers
Wizards
Anthony DavisF · #2314pts / game
Trae YoungG · #37assistsAnthony DavisF · #2311reboundsPelicans
Saddiq BeyG · #4119pts / game
Jeremiah FearsG · #05assists
Yves MissiC · #217reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
WSHNo games played yet.
NONo games played yet.
NO
Team comparison
| WSH | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 112.9 | Points scored / game | 115.5 |
| 124.9 | Points allowed / game | 120.0 |
| -10.2 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.8 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 17-65 (-12.0) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Wizards
No injuries reported.
Injury report Pelicans
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.