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Wizards vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Monday, April 5

Mon, Apr 5 · 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

114-120

New Orleans Pelicans

0-4 · home

31% win WSHwin NO 69%

FavoriteNO

Projected margin6.3

Projected total233

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Monday, April 5 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pelicans a 69% chance to win and projects a 114-120 score (Wizards – Pelicans), about 233 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Pelicans, but the Wizards have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pelicans 120 – 114 Wizards, a margin of about 6.3 points in favor of the Pelicans and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -4.1 / WSH -7.7 per game

+3.6

Home-court advantagePelicans at home

+2.3

InjuriesNO: 3 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+0.4

Expected marginfor Pelicans

+6.3

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Wizards win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

WSHNO

113.1

Points scored / game

115.7

122.2

Points allowed / game

120.5

48.0 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

28.5 %

3-point %

29.0 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

31.0

83.1 %

Free throw %

83.6 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

44.3

25.8

Assists / game

23.5

7.4

Steals / game

12.3

5.6

Blocks / game

4.8

13.6

Turnovers / game

16.5

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Pelicans

Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game

Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists

Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

107-106L

123-120L

120-119L

141-135 OTL DEN

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 31% · NO 69%

ESPN BPI

WSH 49% · NO 51%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		NO
2-3	Record	0-4
113.1	Points scored / game	115.7
122.2	Points allowed / game	120.5
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	-4.1
L2	Current streak	L4
2-3	Last 10 games	0-4
1-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	26-56 (-4.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Pelicans

Dejounte Murray GOut

Jordan Poole GOut

Yves Missi COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.