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Spurs vs Jazz prediction NBA · Monday, October 12

FinalDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, DAZN SAS
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
0-3 · away
Final score
109-119
Projected: 125-113
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
2-1 · home
83% win SAwin UTAH 17%
FavoriteSA
Projected margin11.9
Projected total237
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Utah Jazz host the San Antonio Spurs on Monday, October 12 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. Final score: Spurs 109 – Jazz 119. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 83% chance to win: prediction missed.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Jazz 113 – 125 Spurs, a margin of about 11.9 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 237 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +7.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz
Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.2 / SA +7.1 per game
-14.2
Home-court advantageJazz at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Jazz
-11.9

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+
4%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
20%
Spurs win by 10+
56%

Stat comparison Current season

SAUTAH
119.8
Points scored / game
117.6
111.5
Points allowed / game
126.0
46.0 %
Field goal %
45.4 %
34.6 %
3-point %
33.9 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
34.8
78.3 %
Free throw %
76.6 %
45.0
Rebounds / game
46.8
28.2
Assists / game
26.8
9.8
Steals / game
5.0
6.6
Blocks / game
6.4
12.8
Turnovers / game
17.0

Top performers

Spurs
Ja'Kobi GillespieG · #1725pts / game
Jordan McLaughlinG · #06assists
Tarris Reed Jr.C · #1017rebounds
Jazz
Darryn PetersonG · #2214pts / game
Darryn PetersonG · #225assists
Mo BambaC · #449rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
SA
No games played yet.
UTAH
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

SA lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 28SA117 - 111UTAHNov 2UTAHupcomingSANov 15SAupcomingUTAH

Team comparison

SAUTAH
0-3Record2-1
119.8Points scored / game117.6
111.5Points allowed / game126.0
+7.1Adjusted margin / game-7.2
–Current streak–
–Last 10 games–
–Home / road record–
62-20 (+8.3)Last season22-60 (-8.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

San Antonio Spurs Injury report Spurs

No injuries reported.

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.