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Spurs vs Jazz prediction NBA · Sunday, November 15

Sun, Nov 15 · 5:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

123-110

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

84% win SAwin UTAH 16%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin12.6

Projected total233

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Sunday, November 15 at 5:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 84% chance to win and projects a 123-110 score (Spurs – Jazz), about 233 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Jazz L3, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Jazz 110 – 123 Spurs, a margin of about 12.6 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / SA +6.6 per game

-13.6

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Jazz

-12.6

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

19%

Spurs win by 10+

58%

Stat comparison Current season

SAUTAH

118.9

Points scored / game

116.1

111.1

Points allowed / game

124.3

46.0 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

34.6 %

3-point %

33.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

78.3 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

46.8

28.2

Assists / game

26.8

9.8

Steals / game

5.0

6.6

Blocks / game

6.4

12.8

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

SA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 84% · UTAH 16%

ESPN BPI

SA 78% · UTAH 22%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		UTAH
3-2	Record	1-4
118.9	Points scored / game	116.1
111.1	Points allowed / game	124.3
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
W3	Current streak	L3
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.