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Jazz vs Spurs prediction NBA · Monday, November 2

Mon, Nov 2 · 8:30 PM ETFrost Bank Center · NBA League Pass, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, DAZN SAS

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

108-125

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

8% win UTAHwin SA 92%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin17.2

Projected total233

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Monday, November 2 at 8:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 92% chance to win and projects a 108-125 score (Jazz – Spurs), about 233 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Spurs W3, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 13% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Spurs 125 – 108 Jazz, a margin of about 17.2 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+13.6

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Spurs

+17.2

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

72%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

13%

Jazz win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHSA

116.1

Points scored / game

118.9

124.3

Points allowed / game

111.1

45.4 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

33.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

76.6 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

45.0

26.8

Assists / game

28.2

5.0

Steals / game

9.8

6.4

Blocks / game

6.6

17.0

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

SA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 8% · SA 92%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 15% · SA 85%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		SA
1-4	Record	3-2
116.1	Points scored / game	118.9
124.3	Points allowed / game	111.1
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L3	Current streak	W3
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.