Thunder vs Hawks prediction NBA · Monday, October 12
FinalState Farm Arena · Atlanta News First, Thunder App, Thunder+
66% win OKCwin ATL 34%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin5.1
Projected total231
ConfidenceMedium
At a glance
The Atlanta Hawks host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, October 12 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 110 – Hawks 113. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 66% chance to win: prediction missed.
The analysis Model
The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hawks 113 – 118 Thunder, a margin of about 5.1 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+2.1 vs +9.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.1 / OKC +9.5 per game
-7.4
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Hawks
-5.1
Scenarios
Hawks win by 10+
11%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Thunder win by 10+
35%
Stat comparison Current season
OKCATL
119.0118.5
107.9116.0
44.0 %46.9 %
30.9 %34.8 %
32.441.4
86.4 %72.8 %
46.041.4
22.032.2
8.410.2
6.83.6
13.614.0
Top performers
Thunder
Bennett StirtzG · #1426pts / game
Josh DixG · #217assists
Aday MaraC · #1510reboundsHawks
Jock LandaleC · #3117pts / game
RayJ DennisG · #107assists
Asa NewellF · #1410reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
OKCNo games played yet.
ATLNo games played yet.
ATL
Team comparison
| OKC | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 119.0 | Points scored / game | 118.5 |
| 107.9 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| +9.5 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.1 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.4) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
No injuries reported.
Injury report Hawks
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.