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Hawks vs Thunder prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 18

Wed, Nov 18 · 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · KSBI, Thunder App

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

111-115

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · home

36% win ATLwin OKC 64%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin4.5

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Wednesday, November 18 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 64% chance to win and projects a 111-115 score (Hawks – Thunder), about 226 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Thunder L1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder) and Nikola Topic (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Thunder 115 – 111 Hawks, a margin of about 4.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder

Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / ATL +2.7 per game

+4.9

Home-court advantageThunder at home

+2.3

InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Thunder

+4.5

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Hawks win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLOKC

119.0

Points scored / game

115.8

Points allowed / game

106.9

46.9 %

Field goal %

44.0 %

34.8 %

3-point %

30.9 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

32.4

72.8 %

Free throw %

86.4 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

46.0

32.2

Assists / game

22.0

10.2

Steals / game

8.4

3.6

Blocks / game

6.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 36% · OKC 64%

ESPN BPI

ATL 29% · OKC 72%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		OKC
2-3	Record	4-1
119.0	Points scored / game	115.8
115.8	Points allowed / game	106.9
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	+7.6
L3	Current streak	L1
2-3	Last 10 games	4-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	64-18 (+11.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.