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Thunder vs Hawks prediction NBA · Sunday, December 20

Sun, Dec 20 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · KSBI, Thunder App
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · away
Projected score
113-112
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · home
55% win OKCwin ATL 45%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin1.5
Projected total225
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Sunday, December 20 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 55% chance to win and projects a 113-112 score (Thunder – Hawks), about 225 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Hawks L3, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Hawks 112 – 113 Thunder, a margin of about 1.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).

  • The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / OKC +7.6 per game
-4.9
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
Back-to-backHawks played yesterday
-1.6
InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · OKC: 5 out, 1 questionable
+2.7
Expected marginfor Hawks
-1.5

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
18%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Thunder win by 10+
25%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCATL
115.8
Points scored / game
119.0
106.9
Points allowed / game
115.8
44.0 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
30.9 %
3-point %
34.8 %
32.4
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
86.4 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
46.0
Rebounds / game
41.4
22.0
Assists / game
32.2
8.4
Steals / game
10.2
6.8
Blocks / game
3.6
13.6
Turnovers / game
14.0

Players to watch

Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
OKC
WSA116-104WDEN96-84WLAC108-101WPHX125-114LDAL120-96
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 18ATLupcomingOKCDec 20OKCthis gameATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
OKC 55% · ATL 45%
ESPN BPI
OKC 64% · ATL 36%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

OKCATL
4-1Record2-3
115.8Points scored / game119.0
106.9Points allowed / game115.8
+7.6Adjusted margin / game+2.7
L1Current streakL3
4-1Last 10 games2-3
1-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
64-18 (+11.1)Last season46-36 (+2.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut
Alex Caruso GOut
Thomas Sorber COut
Nikola Topic GOut
Cason Wallace GOut
Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.