Grizzlies vs Hawks prediction NBA · Monday, October 5
FinalState Farm Arena · PeachtreeTV, DAZN MEM
22% win MEMwin ATL 78%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin9.5
Projected total235
ConfidenceMedium
At a glance
The Atlanta Hawks host the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday, October 5 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. Final score: Grizzlies 132 – Hawks 123. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Hawks a 78% chance to win: prediction missed.
The analysis Model
The Hawks start with a clear edge. The model projects Hawks 122 – 113 Grizzlies, a margin of about 9.5 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+2.1 vs -5.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Hawks' offense (118.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.1 / MEM -5.1 per game
+7.2
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Hawks
+9.5
Scenarios
Hawks win by 10+
48%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
24%
Grizzlies win by 10+
6%
Stat comparison Current season
MEMATL
114.7118.5
120.7116.0
45.3 %46.9 %
39.1 %34.8 %
37.841.4
82.8 %72.8 %
50.041.4
25.032.2
6.310.2
6.33.6
15.514.0
Top performers
Grizzlies
GG JacksonF · #4514pts / game
Ty JeromeG · #25assists
Taylor HendricksF · #226reboundsHawks
Corey KispertF · #2419pts / game
RayJ DennisG · #103assists
Asa NewellF · #1412reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MEMNo games played yet.
ATLNo games played yet.
MEM
Team comparison
| MEM | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 114.7 | Points scored / game | 118.5 |
| 120.7 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| -5.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.1 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 25-57 (-6.0) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.4) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Grizzlies
No injuries reported.
Injury report Hawks
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.