Pacers vs Spurs prediction NBA · Friday, October 17
FinalFrost Bank Center · FanDuel SN IN, NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN SW
56% win INDwin SA 44%
FavoriteIND
Projected margin1.9
Projected total232
ConfidenceLow
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs host the Indiana Pacers on Friday, October 17 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. Final score: Pacers 104 – Spurs 133. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Pacers a 56% chance to win: prediction missed.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Spurs 115 – 117 Pacers, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Pacers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-2.3 vs +1.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pacers' offense (117.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Spurs
Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA -2.3 / IND +1.9 per game
-4.2
Home-court advantageSpurs at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Spurs
-1.9
Scenarios
Spurs win by 10+
17%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Pacers win by 10+
26%
Stat comparison Current season
INDSA
117.4113.9
115.1116.7
47.1 %46.0 %
31.2 %34.6 %
37.838.2
72.7 %78.3 %
44.045.0
29.428.2
6.49.8
4.86.6
14.812.8
Top performers
Pacers
Aaron NesmithG · #2312pts / game
Andrew NembhardG · #25assists
Taelon PeterG · #85reboundsSpurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #117pts / game
Stephon CastleG · #59assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #112reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
INDNo games played yet.
SANo games played yet.
SA
Team comparison
| IND | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 117.4 | Points scored / game | 113.9 |
| 115.1 | Points allowed / game | 116.7 |
| +1.9 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.3 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 50-32 (+2.2) | Last season | 34-48 (-2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pacers
No injuries reported.
Injury report Spurs
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.