Spurs vs Pacers prediction NBA · Monday, October 13
FinalGainbridge Fieldhouse · FanDuel SN IN, News 4 San Antonio, NBA League Pass, CWSA
30% win SAwin IND 70%
FavoriteIND
Projected margin6.5
Projected total232
ConfidenceMedium
At a glance
The Indiana Pacers host the San Antonio Spurs on Monday, October 13 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. Final score: Spurs 124 – Pacers 108. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Pacers a 70% chance to win: prediction missed.
The analysis Model
The Pacers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pacers 119 – 113 Spurs, a margin of about 6.5 points in favor of the Pacers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+1.9 vs -2.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pacers' offense (117.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Pacers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND +1.9 / SA -2.3 per game
+4.2
Home-court advantagePacers at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Pacers
+6.5
Scenarios
Pacers win by 10+
39%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Spurs win by 10+
9%
Stat comparison Current season
SAIND
113.9117.4
116.7115.1
46.0 %47.1 %
34.6 %31.2 %
38.237.8
78.3 %72.7 %
45.044.0
28.229.4
9.86.4
6.64.8
12.814.8
Top performers
Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #127pts / game
Dylan HarperG · #28assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #111reboundsPacers
Bennedict MathurinG · #2431pts / game
Andrew NembhardG · #28assistsBennedict MathurinG · #244reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
SANo games played yet.
INDNo games played yet.
SA
Team comparison
| SA | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-1 |
| 113.9 | Points scored / game | 117.4 |
| 116.7 | Points allowed / game | 115.1 |
| -2.3 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.9 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 34-48 (-2.8) | Last season | 50-32 (+2.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Spurs
No injuries reported.
Injury report Pacers
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.