Hornets vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Saturday, October 11
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks host the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday, October 11 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Hornets 120 – Mavericks 116. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Mavericks a 76% chance to win: prediction missed.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Mavericks dominate this matchup. The model projects Mavericks 117 – 108 Hornets, a margin of about 9.0 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-1.0 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Mavericks' offense (114.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CHADAL
Top performers
Hornets
Miles BridgesF · #2220pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16assistsMiles BridgesF · #2211reboundsMavericks
Klay ThompsonG · #1114pts / game
D'Angelo RussellG5assists
Dereck Lively IIC · #26reboundsRecent form
CHADAL
CHA
Team comparison
| CHA | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 1-1 |
| 105.1 | Points scored / game | 114.2 |
| 114.2 | Points allowed / game | 115.4 |
| -7.7 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.0 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 19-63 (-9.1) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Hornets
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.