Hawks vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Saturday, October 11
FinalFedExForum · NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN SE
28% win ATLwin MEM 72%
FavoriteMEM
Projected margin7.4
Projected total238
ConfidenceMedium
At a glance
The Memphis Grizzlies host the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday, October 11 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. Final score: Hawks 122 – Grizzlies 116. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Grizzlies a 72% chance to win: prediction missed.
The analysis Model
The Grizzlies start with a clear edge. The model projects Grizzlies 123 – 115 Hawks, a margin of about 7.4 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 238 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+4.1 vs -1.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Grizzlies' offense (121.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Grizzlies
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM +4.1 / ATL -1.0 per game
+5.1
Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Grizzlies
+7.4
Scenarios
Grizzlies win by 10+
42%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
26%
Hawks win by 10+
8%
Stat comparison Current season
ATLMEM
118.2121.7
119.3116.9
46.9 %45.3 %
34.8 %39.1 %
41.437.8
72.8 %82.8 %
41.450.0
32.225.0
10.26.3
3.66.3
14.015.5
Top performers
Hawks
Jalen JohnsonF · #120pts / game
Trae YoungG · #38assistsJalen JohnsonF · #17reboundsGrizzlies
Jaylen WellsF · #015pts / game
Javon SmallG · #105assists
Santi AldamaF · #3410reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATLNo games played yet.
MEMNo games played yet.
ATL
Team comparison
| ATL | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 0-3 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 121.7 |
| 119.3 | Points allowed / game | 116.9 |
| -1.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +4.1 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 40-42 (-1.1) | Last season | 48-34 (+4.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Hawks
No injuries reported.
Injury report Grizzlies
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.