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Grizzlies vs Hawks prediction NBA · Monday, March 23

FinalState Farm Arena · FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
35% win MEMwin ATL 65%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin4.9
Projected total235
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (39-32) host the Memphis Grizzlies (24-46) on Monday, March 23 at 7:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. Final score: Grizzlies 107 – Hawks 146. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Hawks a 65% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Hawks are 20-16 at home and the Grizzlies are 11-25 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 9-1 for the Hawks and 1-9 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Hawks W1, Grizzlies L2).

The analysis Model

The Hawks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hawks 120 – 115 Grizzlies, a margin of about 4.9 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +0.8 / MEM -1.7 per game
+2.6
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Hawks
+4.9

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
34%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Grizzlies win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMATL
116.4
Points scored / game
117.9
118.4
Points allowed / game
116.9
45.3 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
39.1 %
3-point %
34.8 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
82.8 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
50.0
Rebounds / game
41.4
25.0
Assists / game
32.2
6.3
Steals / game
10.2
6.3
Blocks / game
3.6
15.5
Turnovers / game
14.0

Top performers

Grizzlies
GG JacksonF · #4526pts / game
Walter Clayton Jr.G · #16assists
Tyler BurtonF8rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #726pts / game
CJ McCollumG · #39assists
Zaccharie RisacherF · #108rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MEM
No games played yet.
ATL
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

ATL lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

MEMATL
24-46Record39-32
116.4Points scored / game117.9
118.4Points allowed / game116.9
-1.7Adjusted margin / game+0.8
L2Current streakW1
1-9Last 10 games9-1
11-25 roadHome / road record20-16 home
48-34 (+4.9)Last season40-42 (-1.1)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Memphis Grizzlies Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.