Hornets vs Thunder prediction NBA · Thursday, October 9
FinalPaycom Center · FanDuel SN OK, NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN SE
5% win CHAwin OKC 95%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin21.0
Projected total224
ConfidenceMedium
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday, October 9 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Hornets 116 – Thunder 122. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 95% chance to win: prediction correct.
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 122 – 101 Hornets, a margin of about 21.0 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+10.9 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (120.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Thunder
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +10.9 / CHA -7.7 per game
+18.7
Home-court advantageThunder at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Thunder
+21.0
Scenarios
Thunder win by 10+
81%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
8%
Hornets win by 10+
1%
Stat comparison Current season
CHAOKC
105.1120.5
114.2107.6
41.7 %44.0 %
30.6 %30.9 %
43.232.4
85.2 %86.4 %
47.446.0
20.622.0
6.88.4
5.26.8
19.013.6
Top performers
Hornets
Tre MannG · #118pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #14assists
Tidjane SalaunF · #3110reboundsThunder
Isaiah JoeG · #1719pts / game
Cason WallaceG · #228assistsCason WallaceG · #2210reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
CHANo games played yet.
OKCNo games played yet.
OKC
Team comparison
| CHA | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-1 |
| 105.1 | Points scored / game | 120.5 |
| 114.2 | Points allowed / game | 107.6 |
| -7.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +10.9 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 19-63 (-9.1) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Hornets
No injuries reported.
Injury report Thunder
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.