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Pacers vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Tuesday, October 7

FinalTarget Center · FanDuel SN IN, NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN North
35% win INDwin MIN 65%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin4.7
Projected total228
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday, October 7 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Pacers 135 – Timberwolves 134. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 65% chance to win: prediction missed.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Timberwolves, but the Pacers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Timberwolves 116 – 112 Pacers, a margin of about 4.7 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Pacers' offense (117.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +4.3 / IND +1.9 per game
+2.4
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+4.7

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
33%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Pacers win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

INDMIN
117.4
Points scored / game
114.3
115.1
Points allowed / game
109.3
47.1 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
31.2 %
3-point %
38.4 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
72.7 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
44.0
Rebounds / game
51.6
29.4
Assists / game
27.0
6.4
Steals / game
9.2
4.8
Blocks / game
4.4
14.8
Turnovers / game
16.2

Top performers

Pacers
RayJ DennisG · #1016pts / game
RayJ DennisG · #105assists
Gabe McGlothanF · #416rebounds
Timberwolves
Johnny JuzangG · #920pts / game
Terrence Shannon Jr.G · #45assists
Alize JohnsonF · #249rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
IND
No games played yet.
MIN
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

MIN lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

INDMIN
1-0Record1-1
117.4Points scored / game114.3
115.1Points allowed / game109.3
+1.9Adjusted margin / game+4.3
–Current streak–
–Last 10 games–
–Home / road record–
50-32 (+2.2)Last season49-33 (+5.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

No injuries reported.

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.