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Pacers vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Sunday, October 26

FinalTarget Center · FanDuel SN IN, NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN North

Indiana Pacers

0-3 · away

Final score

110-114

Projected: 111-118

Minnesota Timberwolves

2-1 · home

29% win INDwin MIN 71%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin6.9

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1) host the Indiana Pacers (0-2) on Sunday, October 26 at 7:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Pacers 110 – Timberwolves 114. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 71% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Pacers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-1 for the Timberwolves and 0-2 for the Pacers (current streaks: Timberwolves L1, Pacers L2).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Timberwolves, but the Pacers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Timberwolves 118 – 111 Pacers, a margin of about 6.9 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pacers' offense (117.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +2.8 / IND -0.3 per game

+3.0

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

Back-to-backPacers played yesterday

+1.6

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+6.9

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

40%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Pacers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

INDMIN

117.6

Points scored / game

114.3

117.9

Points allowed / game

111.0

47.1 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

31.2 %

3-point %

38.4 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

72.7 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

51.6

29.4

Assists / game

27.0

6.4

Steals / game

9.2

4.8

Blocks / game

4.4

14.8

Turnovers / game

16.2

Top performers

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4333pts / game

Pascal SiakamF · #438assists

Pascal SiakamF · #4310rebounds

Timberwolves

Julius RandleF · #3031pts / game

Julius RandleF · #306assists

Rudy GobertC · #2718rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

No games played yet.

MIN

No games played yet.

Head-to-head

MIN lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

IND		MIN
0-2	Record	1-1
117.6	Points scored / game	114.3
117.9	Points allowed / game	111.0
-0.3	Adjusted margin / game	+2.8
L2	Current streak	L1
0-2	Last 10 games	1-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-0 home
50-32 (+2.2)	Last season	49-33 (+5.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

No injuries reported.

Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.