Thunder vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Monday, October 6
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, October 6 at 8:30 PM ET at Dickies Arena in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 89 – Mavericks 106. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 74% chance to win: prediction missed.
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Mavericks 110 – 118 Thunder, a margin of about 8.1 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-1.0 vs +10.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (120.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCDAL
Top performers
Thunder
Brooks BarnhizerF · #2316pts / game
Ousmane DiengF · #216assistsBrooks BarnhizerF · #237reboundsMavericks
P.J. WashingtonF · #2514pts / game
D'Angelo RussellG5assists
Anthony DavisF · #237reboundsRecent form
OKCDAL
OKC
Team comparison
| OKC | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 120.5 | Points scored / game | 114.2 |
| 107.6 | Points allowed / game | 115.4 |
| +10.9 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.0 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.