Mavericks vs Thunder prediction NBA · Friday, December 5
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (21-1) host the Dallas Mavericks (8-15) on Friday, December 5 at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 111 – Thunder 132. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 92% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 10-0 at home and the Mavericks are 3-6 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 10-0 for the Thunder and 5-5 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Thunder W13, Mavericks W3).
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 123 – 106 Mavericks, a margin of about 17.3 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+12.3 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (121.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALOKC
Top performers
Mavericks
Jaden HardyG · #723pts / game
Brandon WilliamsG · #127assists
Anthony DavisF · #238reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #233pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #26assists
Jalen WilliamsG · #88reboundsRecent form
DALOKC
OKC
Team comparison
| DAL | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-15 | Record | 21-1 |
| 112.4 | Points scored / game | 121.6 |
| 115.6 | Points allowed / game | 107.2 |
| -2.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +12.3 |
| W3 | Current streak | W13 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 10-0 |
| 3-6 road | Home / road record | 10-0 home |
| 39-43 (-1.2) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.