Thunder vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Sunday, March 1
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (21-38) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (46-15) on Sunday, March 1 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 100 – Mavericks 87. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 79% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Mavericks are 14-18 at home and the Thunder are 21-8 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 2-8 for the Mavericks and 6-4 for the Thunder (current streaks: Mavericks L2, Thunder W1).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Mavericks 110 – 120 Thunder, a margin of about 10.2 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-2.7 vs +9.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (108.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCDAL
Top performers
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #230pts / game
Cason WallaceG · #228assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #79reboundsMavericks
Caleb MartinF · #1618pts / game
Ryan NembhardG · #95assists
Moussa CisseC · #3012reboundsRecent form
OKCDAL
OKC
Team comparison
| OKC | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 46-15 | Record | 21-38 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 114.3 |
| 108.1 | Points allowed / game | 117.5 |
| +9.8 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.7 |
| W1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 2-8 |
| 21-8 road | Home / road record | 14-18 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.