Thunder vs Hornets prediction NBA · Sunday, October 5
FinalNorth Charleston Coliseum · Thunder App, NBA League Pass
90% win OKCwin CHA 10%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin16.4
Projected total224
ConfidenceMedium
At a glance
The Charlotte Hornets host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday, October 5 at 5:00 PM ET at North Charleston Coliseum in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 135 – Hornets 114. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 90% chance to win: prediction correct.
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Hornets 104 – 120 Thunder, a margin of about 16.4 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +10.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (120.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Hornets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA -7.7 / OKC +10.9 per game
-18.7
Home-court advantageHornets at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Hornets
-16.4
Scenarios
Hornets win by 10+
2%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
14%
Thunder win by 10+
70%
Stat comparison Current season
OKCCHA
120.5105.1
107.6114.2
44.0 %41.7 %
30.9 %30.6 %
32.443.2
86.4 %85.2 %
46.047.4
22.020.6
8.46.8
6.85.2
13.619.0
Top performers
Thunder
Aaron WigginsG · #223pts / game
Nikola TopicG · #447assists
Malevy LeonsF · #3311reboundsHornets
Kon KnueppelG · #718pts / game
Tre MannG · #15assists
Miles BridgesF · #228reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
OKCNo games played yet.
CHANo games played yet.
OKC
Team comparison
| OKC | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 120.5 | Points scored / game | 105.1 |
| 107.6 | Points allowed / game | 114.2 |
| +10.9 | Adjusted margin / game | -7.7 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 19-63 (-9.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
No injuries reported.
Injury report Hornets
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.