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Timberwolves vs Rockets prediction NBA · Friday, April 10

FinalToyota Center (Houston) · Prime Video, Space City Home Network, FanDuel SN North
44% win MINwin HOU 56%
FavoriteHOU
Projected margin1.9
Projected total226
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (51-29) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (47-33) on Friday, April 10 at 9:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. Final score: Timberwolves 136 – Rockets 132. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Rockets a 56% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Rockets are 29-10 at home and the Timberwolves are 22-18 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Rockets and 4-6 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Rockets W8, Timberwolves L1).

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Rockets 114 – 112 Timberwolves, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +4.2 / MIN +3.0 per game
+1.2
Home-court advantageRockets at home
+2.3
Back-to-backRockets played yesterday
-1.6
Expected marginfor Rockets
+1.9

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+
26%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Timberwolves win by 10+
17%

Stat comparison Current season

MINHOU
117.2
Points scored / game
114.7
113.6
Points allowed / game
109.8
47.3 %
Field goal %
51.7 %
38.4 %
3-point %
40.4 %
40.6
3-pointers attempted / game
32.2
62.7 %
Free throw %
84.7 %
51.6
Rebounds / game
44.8
27.0
Assists / game
28.2
9.2
Steals / game
10.2
4.4
Blocks / game
6.0
16.2
Turnovers / game
15.8

Top performers

Timberwolves
Terrence Shannon Jr.G · #423pts / game
Kyle AndersonF · #129assists
Jaden McDanielsF · #37rebounds
Rockets
Amen ThompsonG · #141pts / game
Alperen SengunC · #288assists
Amen ThompsonG · #19rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIN
No games played yet.
HOU
No games played yet.

Team comparison

MINHOU
47-33Record51-29
117.2Points scored / game114.7
113.6Points allowed / game109.8
+3.0Adjusted margin / game+4.2
L1Current streakW8
4-6Last 10 games8-2
22-18 roadHome / road record29-10 home
49-33 (+5.0)Last season52-30 (+4.5)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.