Mavericks vs Suns prediction NBA · Wednesday, April 8
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (43-36) host the Dallas Mavericks (25-54) on Wednesday, April 8 at 10:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 107 – Suns 112. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Suns a 72% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Suns are 24-16 at home and the Mavericks are 10-29 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Suns and 2-8 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Suns L1, Mavericks L1).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Suns dominate this matchup. The model projects Suns 117 – 110 Mavericks, a margin of about 7.3 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns and the Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs -4.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALPHX
Top performers
Mavericks
John PoulakidasG · #123pts / game
Ryan NembhardG · #97assists
Cooper FlaggF · #3211reboundsSuns
Devin BookerG · #1537pts / gameDevin BookerG · #159assists
Khaman MaluachC · #1014reboundsRecent form
DALPHX
PHX
Team comparison
| DAL | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-54 | Record | 43-36 |
| 113.8 | Points scored / game | 112.9 |
| 118.9 | Points allowed / game | 112.1 |
| -4.3 | Adjusted margin / game | +0.7 |
| L1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 10-29 road | Home / road record | 24-16 home |
| 39-43 (-1.2) | Last season | 36-46 (-3.0) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.