Warriors vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Monday, March 23
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (23-48) host the Golden State Warriors (33-38) on Monday, March 23 at 9:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 137 – Mavericks 131. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 57% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Mavericks are 14-22 at home and the Warriors are 14-23 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 2-8 for the Mavericks and 2-8 for the Warriors (current streaks: Mavericks L3, Warriors L3).
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Mavericks 114 – 116 Warriors, a margin of about 2.1 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-3.9 vs +0.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSDAL
Top performers
Warriors
Moses MoodyG · #423pts / game
Brandin PodziemskiG · #26assistsBrandin PodziemskiG · #210reboundsMavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3232pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #329assists
Daniel GaffordF · #217reboundsRecent form
GSDAL
DAL
Team comparison
| GS | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-38 | Record | 23-48 |
| 114.6 | Points scored / game | 113.6 |
| 114.0 | Points allowed / game | 118.2 |
| +0.5 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.9 |
| L3 | Current streak | L3 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 games | 2-8 |
| 14-23 road | Home / road record | 14-22 home |
| 48-34 (+3.3) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.