Warriors vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Thursday, January 22
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (18-26) host the Golden State Warriors (25-20) on Thursday, January 22 at 7:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 115 – Mavericks 123. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 57% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 13-11 at home and the Warriors are 8-13 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Mavericks and 7-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Mavericks W3, Warriors L1).
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Mavericks 114 – 116 Warriors, a margin of about 2.1 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSDAL
Top performers
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3038pts / game
Brandin PodziemskiG · #210assists
Al HorfordC · #208reboundsMavericks
Naji MarshallF · #330pts / gameNaji MarshallF · #39assists
Dwight PowellF · #712reboundsRecent form
GSDAL
DAL
Team comparison
| GS | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-20 | Record | 18-26 |
| 116.2 | Points scored / game | 114.2 |
| 113.2 | Points allowed / game | 116.3 |
| +2.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.8 |
| L1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 8-13 road | Home / road record | 13-11 home |
| 48-34 (+3.3) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.