Mavericks vs Warriors prediction NBA · Thursday, December 25
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (15-15) host the Dallas Mavericks (12-19) on Thursday, December 25 at 5:17 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 116 – Warriors 126. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 71% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Warriors are 9-4 at home and the Mavericks are 3-10 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Warriors and 6-4 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Warriors W2, Mavericks W1).
The analysis Model
The Warriors are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Warriors 118 – 111 Mavericks, a margin of about 6.8 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+2.0 vs -2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALGS
Top performers
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3227pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #325assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #2510reboundsWarriors
Stephen CurryG · #3023pts / game
Jimmy Butler IIIF · #109assistsJimmy Butler IIIF · #109reboundsRecent form
DALGS
DAL
Team comparison
| DAL | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 12-19 | Record | 15-15 |
| 113.8 | Points scored / game | 114.1 |
| 116.8 | Points allowed / game | 111.8 |
| -2.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W2 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 3-10 road | Home / road record | 9-4 home |
| 39-43 (-1.2) | Last season | 48-34 (+3.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.