Bucks vs Heat prediction NBA · Thursday, March 12
At a glance
The Miami Heat (37-29) host the Milwaukee Bucks (27-37) on Thursday, March 12 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Bucks 105 – Heat 112. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 75% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Heat are 22-11 at home and the Bucks are 12-19 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Heat and 3-7 for the Bucks (current streaks: Heat W6, Bucks L2).
The analysis Model
The Heat start with a clear edge. The model projects Heat 120 – 111 Bucks, a margin of about 8.3 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+2.9 vs -3.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (119.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MILMIA
Top performers
Bucks
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #731pts / game
Ryan RollinsG · #1310assists
Kevin Porter Jr.G · #77reboundsHeat
Pelle LarssonG · #928pts / game
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #247assists
Kel'el WareC · #913reboundsRecent form
MILMIAHead-to-head
MIA lead 2-1 this season.
MIL
Team comparison
| MIL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-37 | Record | 37-29 |
| 111.8 | Points scored / game | 119.1 |
| 115.5 | Points allowed / game | 115.7 |
| -3.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.9 |
| L2 | Current streak | W6 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 games | 8-2 |
| 12-19 road | Home / road record | 22-11 home |
| 48-34 (+2.5) | Last season | 37-45 (+0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Bucks
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.