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Mavericks vs Raptors prediction NBA · Sunday, March 8

FinalScotiabank Arena · Sportsnet, KFAA-TV, MavsTV, NBA League Pass
31% win DALwin TOR 69%
FavoriteTOR
Projected margin6.1
Projected total228
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (35-27) host the Dallas Mavericks (21-42) on Sunday, March 8 at 6:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 92 – Raptors 122. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Raptors a 69% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Raptors are 16-16 at home and the Mavericks are 7-23 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Raptors and 2-8 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Raptors L2, Mavericks L6).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Raptors, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Raptors 117 – 111 Mavericks, a margin of about 6.1 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors
Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +0.5 / DAL -3.3 per game
+3.8
Home-court advantageRaptors at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Raptors
+6.1

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+
38%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Mavericks win by 10+
10%

Stat comparison Current season

DALTOR
113.4
Points scored / game
113.1
117.3
Points allowed / game
112.5
49.0 %
Field goal %
44.2 %
34.6 %
3-point %
30.4 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
34.5
76.7 %
Free throw %
79.0 %
44.2
Rebounds / game
45.8
27.6
Assists / game
27.3
9.0
Steals / game
14.3
7.4
Blocks / game
5.5
15.6
Turnovers / game
14.0

Top performers

Mavericks
Daniel GaffordF · #2121pts / game
Cooper FlaggF · #326assists
Daniel GaffordF · #2111rebounds
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #931pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #58assists
Jakob PoeltlC · #1910rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DAL
No games played yet.
TOR
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

DALTOR
21-42Record35-27
113.4Points scored / game113.1
117.3Points allowed / game112.5
-3.3Adjusted margin / game+0.5
L6Current streakL2
2-8Last 10 games5-5
7-23 roadHome / road record16-16 home
39-43 (-1.2)Last season30-52 (-4.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Toronto Raptors Injury report Raptors

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.