Kings vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Thursday, February 26
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (21-36) host the Sacramento Kings (13-47) on Thursday, February 26 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Kings 130 – Mavericks 121. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Mavericks a 77% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 14-16 at home and the Kings are 4-27 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 2-8 for the Mavericks and 1-9 for the Kings (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Kings L1).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Mavericks dominate this matchup. The model projects Mavericks 120 – 110 Kings, a margin of about 9.2 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (-2.5 vs -7.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Mavericks' offense (114.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SACDAL
Top performers
Kings
Precious AchiuwaF · #929pts / game
Nique CliffordG · #107assistsPrecious AchiuwaF · #912reboundsMavericks
Naji MarshallF · #336pts / gameNaji MarshallF · #36assistsNaji MarshallF · #310reboundsRecent form
SACDAL
DAL
Team comparison
| SAC | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 13-47 | Record | 21-36 |
| 111.0 | Points scored / game | 114.4 |
| 120.1 | Points allowed / game | 117.3 |
| -7.8 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.5 |
| L1 | Current streak | W2 |
| 1-9 | Last 10 games | 2-8 |
| 4-27 road | Home / road record | 14-16 home |
| 40-42 (+0.5) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Kings
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.