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Warriors vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 24

FinalSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, NBC Sports BA, NBA League Pass
65% win GSwin NO 35%
FavoriteGS
Projected margin4.8
Projected total231
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (16-42) host the Golden State Warriors (30-27) on Tuesday, February 24 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 109 – Pelicans 113. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 65% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Pelicans are 10-21 at home and the Warriors are 11-16 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Pelicans and 4-6 for the Warriors (current streaks: Pelicans W1, Warriors W1).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Warriors, but the Pelicans have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pelicans 113 – 118 Warriors, a margin of about 4.8 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (-5.4 vs +1.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -5.4 / GS +1.7 per game
-7.1
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Pelicans
-4.8

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+
12%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Warriors win by 10+
34%

Stat comparison Current season

GSNO
115.3
Points scored / game
114.0
113.3
Points allowed / game
120.3
45.0 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
36.9 %
3-point %
29.0 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
31.0
82.2 %
Free throw %
83.6 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
44.3
25.6
Assists / game
23.5
9.6
Steals / game
12.3
3.8
Blocks / game
4.8
16.8
Turnovers / game
16.5

Top performers

Warriors
De'Anthony MeltonG · #828pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236assists
Brandin PodziemskiG · #215rebounds
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #126pts / game
Jeremiah FearsG · #05assists
Karlo MatkovicF · #178rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
No games played yet.
NO
No games played yet.

Team comparison

GSNO
30-27Record16-42
115.3Points scored / game114.0
113.3Points allowed / game120.3
+1.7Adjusted margin / game-5.4
W1Current streakW1
4-6Last 10 games4-6
11-16 roadHome / road record10-21 home
48-34 (+3.3)Last season21-61 (-9.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.