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Grizzlies vs Warriors prediction NBA · Monday, February 9

FinalChase Center · NBC Sports BA, FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
34% win MEMwin GS 66%
FavoriteGS
Projected margin5.0
Projected total231
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (28-25) host the Memphis Grizzlies (20-31) on Monday, February 9 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. Final score: Grizzlies 113 – Warriors 114. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 66% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Warriors are 17-9 at home and the Grizzlies are 9-16 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Warriors and 2-8 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Warriors L1, Grizzlies L2).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Warriors, but the Grizzlies have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 118 – 113 Grizzlies, a margin of about 5.0 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors
Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS +2.0 / MEM -0.7 per game
+2.7
Home-court advantageWarriors at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Warriors
+5.0

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+
34%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Grizzlies win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMGS
116.5
Points scored / game
115.3
117.3
Points allowed / game
112.9
45.3 %
Field goal %
45.0 %
39.1 %
3-point %
36.9 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
39.0
82.8 %
Free throw %
82.2 %
50.0
Rebounds / game
43.8
25.0
Assists / game
25.6
6.3
Steals / game
9.6
6.3
Blocks / game
3.8
15.5
Turnovers / game
16.8

Top performers

Grizzlies
Ty JeromeG · #219pts / game
Ty JeromeG · #27assists
Taylor HendricksF · #2210rebounds
Warriors
Pat SpencerG · #6117pts / game
Pat SpencerG · #617assists
Al HorfordC · #209rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MEM
No games played yet.
GS
No games played yet.

Team comparison

MEMGS
20-31Record28-25
116.5Points scored / game115.3
117.3Points allowed / game112.9
-0.7Adjusted margin / game+2.0
L2Current streakL1
2-8Last 10 games4-6
9-16 roadHome / road record17-9 home
48-34 (+4.9)Last season48-34 (+3.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Memphis Grizzlies Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.