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Pistons vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 21

FinalSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, FanDuel SN DET, NBA League Pass
77% win DETwin NO 23%
FavoriteDET
Projected margin9.4
Projected total232
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (10-35) host the Detroit Pistons (31-10) on Wednesday, January 21 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. Final score: Pistons 112 – Pelicans 104. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Pistons a 77% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Pelicans are 7-18 at home and the Pistons are 13-6 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 2-8 for the Pelicans and 7-3 for the Pistons (current streaks: Pelicans L2, Pistons W3).

The analysis Model

On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Pelicans 111 – 121 Pistons, a margin of about 9.4 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (-6.6 vs +5.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Pistons' offense (116.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -6.6 / DET +5.1 per game
-11.7
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Pelicans
-9.4

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+
6%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
24%
Pistons win by 10+
48%

Stat comparison Current season

DETNO
116.9
Points scored / game
113.8
110.9
Points allowed / game
121.6
45.9 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
37.9 %
3-point %
29.0 %
36.4
3-pointers attempted / game
31.0
74.4 %
Free throw %
83.6 %
46.8
Rebounds / game
44.3
27.0
Assists / game
23.5
8.0
Steals / game
12.3
7.2
Blocks / game
4.8
15.6
Turnovers / game
16.5

Top performers

Pistons
Jalen DurenC · #020pts / game
Daniss JenkinsG · #244assists
Jalen DurenC · #015rebounds
Pelicans
Saddiq BeyG · #4120pts / game
Derik QueenC · #228assists
Micah PeavyG7rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DET
No games played yet.
NO
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

DET lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

DETNO
31-10Record10-35
116.9Points scored / game113.8
110.9Points allowed / game121.6
+5.1Adjusted margin / game-6.6
W3Current streakL2
7-3Last 10 games2-8
13-6 roadHome / road record7-18 home
44-38 (+1.9)Last season21-61 (-9.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Detroit Pistons Injury report Pistons

No injuries reported.

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.