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Lakers vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 20

FinalBall Arena · NBC, Peacock, Spectrum Sports Net, Altitude Sports
31% win LALwin DEN 69%
FavoriteDEN
Projected margin6.2
Projected total235
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (29-14) host the Los Angeles Lakers (25-16) on Tuesday, January 20 at 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. Final score: Lakers 115 – Nuggets 107. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 69% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Nuggets are 12-7 at home and the Lakers are 13-8 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Nuggets and 5-5 for the Lakers (current streaks: Nuggets L1, Lakers W1).

The analysis Model

The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Nuggets 121 – 114 Lakers, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Nuggets' offense (121.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +3.8 / LAL -0.0 per game
+3.9
Home-court advantageNuggets at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Nuggets
+6.2

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+
38%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Lakers win by 10+
10%

Stat comparison Current season

LALDEN
115.7
Points scored / game
121.5
115.7
Points allowed / game
117.0
52.9 %
Field goal %
45.8 %
39.2 %
3-point %
32.8 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
34.3
79.1 %
Free throw %
79.6 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
44.5
24.0
Assists / game
26.0
10.8
Steals / game
10.0
5.8
Blocks / game
4.8
16.6
Turnovers / game
15.3

Top performers

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7738pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #7710assists
Luka DoncicG · #7713rebounds
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2728pts / game
Jamal MurrayG · #2711assists
Jalen PickettG · #216rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
No games played yet.
DEN
No games played yet.

Team comparison

LALDEN
25-16Record29-14
115.7Points scored / game121.5
115.7Points allowed / game117.0
-0.0Adjusted margin / game+3.8
W1Current streakL1
5-5Last 10 games6-4
13-8 roadHome / road record12-7 home
50-32 (+1.2)Last season50-32 (+3.9)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

No injuries reported.

Denver Nuggets Injury report Nuggets

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.